For decades, General Motors (GM) dominated the U.S. automotive market. However, Toyota is rapidly closing in, and the race for the top spot is tighter than ever. Recent sales data reveals a significant shift: while GM currently leads, Toyota’s gains in hybrid vehicle sales and GM’s slow transition to electrification could reshape the landscape by 2026.
The Changing Face of U.S. Automakers
The “Big Three” – GM, Ford, and Stellantis – have steadily lost market share over the past 40 years. Foreign automakers, including Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and others, have expanded aggressively by establishing manufacturing plants in the Southern U.S. These facilities offset tariffs and provide a competitive edge.
GM reclaimed the U.S. sales crown in 2022, 2023, and 2024, leading by nearly 300,000 vehicles as of September. However, the gap is shrinking. GM’s overall sales volume has fallen from 4.9 million units in 2000 to 2.7 million in 2024, while the market has become more crowded.
Toyota’s Hybrid Advantage
Toyota has strategically focused on hybrid technology, a move that has resonated with U.S. consumers. Through September of this year, Toyota Motor sales rose by 7.9% to 1,865,876 vehicles, with the Toyota brand outselling Chevrolet by over 215,000 units. Toyota’s hybrid sales are up 28% to nearly 900,000 vehicles, including 100,000 Lexus hybrids.
Meanwhile, GM’s hybrid offerings remain limited; the Chevrolet Corvette E-Ray is the only significant model. While GM plans to introduce new plug-in hybrids in 2027, the timing is critical – will they arrive soon enough to compete with Toyota’s established hybrid dominance?
GM’s Electric Push and Brand Performance
GM has aggressively pushed electric vehicle (EV) sales, but the market has shown signs of slowing. Despite this, all four GM brands – Cadillac, Buick, GMC, and Chevrolet – grew sales faster than Lexus and Toyota through September.
- Cadillac saw a 19.4% increase, while Buick climbed 14.3%. GMC and Chevrolet also posted strong growth.
- Combined sales of Cadillac and Buick (289,464 units) exceeded Lexus by nearly 19,000 units.
This indicates that GM is still strong in the luxury and near-luxury segments, but the overall trend favors Toyota in the mainstream market.
What Lies Ahead?
The battle for U.S. sales leadership will likely intensify in the coming years.
“The gap between GM and Toyota could narrow next year, but for multiple reasons and not resting on GM’s lack of hybrid offerings,” says Stephanie Brinley, an analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
GM’s reliance on EVs while Toyota capitalizes on hybrids presents a clear strategic divergence. If gasoline prices rise or EV demand stagnates, Toyota’s hybrid advantage could become even more pronounced.
Ultimately, the final sales figures for 2025 will determine whether GM can maintain its lead or if Toyota will continue to close the gap, potentially setting the stage for a dramatic shift in the U.S. automotive market by 2026.
